Saturday, August 9, 2014

This Week in War News: August 3-9, 2014

Iraq

Peshmerga fighters on the front lines. Photo: Reuters.
The US has launched airstrikes on ISIS artillery with the intention of stopping the terrorist group’s advance on Erbil, currently controlled by Kurdish Peshmerga forces. The Peshmerga, formerly considered to be more capable than the Iraqi military, has retreated from ISIS multiple times in the last few weeks. ISIS appears to be attempting to carry out genocide against Iraq’s Yazidi minority population.

Yazidism is a unique, 4,000-year-old monotheistic religion. Iraq has about half a million Yazidis. ISIS, which considers them to be “devil-worshippers”, is holding hundreds of Yazidi women prisoner, and is accused of selling them as slaves. About 35-50,000 Yazidis who fled ISIS’ advance are trapped in the Sinjar mountains are being supplied food and water by the US and Turkey.

This past week, ISIS captured the poorly-built Mosul Dam, Iraq’s largest, which supplies water and electricity to millions of Iraqis. If ISIS destroys it – or even fails to maintain it – the rush of water will flood Mosul and parts of Baghdad, killing up to half a million people and leaving millions more without power.


Ukraine and Russia

Russia has banned Western food imports and is threatening to block international commercial access to its airspace. This suggests that Russia will be willing to cut off gas exports to the EU as winter approaches.

Russia and Ukraine are inching towards open war. International fears that Russia will invade eastern Ukraine are growing. In the absence of an open Russian invasion, it is almost certain that the Ukrainian military will succeed in retaking Donetsk and Luhansk, the two main bastions of the separatist movement. Donetsk appears to have been isolated from the rest of the separatist-held territory, and Luhansk will probably be surrounded soon. More than 1,500 people have died in the fighting so far.

There was a false alarm over Aeroflot flight 1127, which was briefly believed to have disappeared in the air near eastern Ukraine.


Israel and Gaza

Israel has withdrawn its ground troops from Gaza. Another ceasefire has collapsed, with Israeli airstrikes and Hamas rocket attacks resuming. Israel says the IDF accomplished its objective of destroying Hamas tunnels; Israel’s original objective was to stop Hamas’ rocket attacks.

More than 1,900 Gazans, mostly civilian, and fewer than 70 Israelis, almost all soldiers, have been killed since the fighting began a month ago. One Thai national, working in Israeli, was also killed.

An apparently accidental Israeli strike on Gaza’s main power plant has caused the humanitarian situation in Gaza to worsen considerably.


Afghanistan and Pakistan

Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s two presidential candidates, have agreed to a power-sharing deal regardless of who is determined to be the winner of the disputed election. The deal – which goes along with the ongoing recount – was brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry, and will include the creation of a more powerful prime minister, and the creation of a “chief executive” position to be filled by the loser’s candidate.

The Taliban have taken ground in this year’s summer offensive. On the other side of the border, Pakistan claims to have killed 500 Taliban for the loss of 27 soldiers in a recent offensive in North Waziristan. 800,000 people have been displaced by the fighting.


Yemen

Al-Qaeda has kidnapped and executed fourteen Yemeni soldiers. The attack seems to be in retaliation for the combat deaths of 25 suspected fighters in south Yemen over the last week.

The Yemeni government has signed a ceasefire with minority Shia Houthi fighters in the north of the country. This will hopefully bring an end to one of Yemen’s three ongoing insurgencies.



Elswhere in the world, fighting is ongoing in Syria, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India.

China: More Violence in Xinjiang

People's Armed Police in Xinjiang. Photo: Reuters
Last week, a Uighur mob with knives and axes rioted and attacked a police station in the Xinjiang region of western China. That, or Chinese police fired into a protest, and the protesters defended themselves. In any case, police claimed to have killed 59 of the rioters, who they claim killed 35 Han and 2 Uighur civilians. Uighur representatives verify a death toll of about a hundred. No police appear to have been killed, but 37 vehicles were reported damaged or destroyed. 215 people have been arrested.

I wanted to wait a bit to see if the information cleared up. Reporting on events in China from outside China is not the easiest thing in the world, due to the narrow range of viewpoints usually available.

The Xinjiang conflict is primarily an ethic one, between the Uighur locals and Han immigrants, who are now a majority of the region’s population. Han Chinese make up more than 90% of China’s population. Most of the Uighur population is Muslim, and has faced dramatically increased religious repression over the past few years. Police in parts of Xinjiang have banned fasting for Ramadan, wearing veils and headscarves, and even wearing beards.

Over the last year, apparent Uighur separatists have carried out terror attacks with knives and bombs across China, usually against Han civilians or symbols of government authority. Several officials and government-sanctioned imams have been assassinated in the Xinjiang region.

The People’s Armed Police

"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." — Mao Tse-tung

The police involved in the incident were most likely members of the People’s Armed Police, a massive second army intended for internal security duties. Their role is similar to that of Russia’s internal troops or India’s Central Reserve Police Force.

They use military uniforms and equipment, including armored vehicles with mounted heavy machine guns. Official numbers claim a strength of 660,000, but outside estimates range from 1.1 to 1.5 million, of which 800,000 are believed to be militarized. The rest of the organization is dedicated to tasks such as fire prevention in China’s forests.

China’s spending on internal security has outweighed its defense budget since 2010, though China’s actual defense budget has been estimated to be about 40% higher than reported.

Risks

If Uighur separatists were to acquire military-grade weapons, either from a foreign supplier or by ambushing heavily-armed police patrols, the conflict could escalate to a major insurgency. So far, the separatists appear to have had no access to firearms, and very little external support. Smuggling is a possibility – Xinjiang has a narrow border with Afghanistan’s relatively peaceful Badakhshan province. China has recruited Tajik herdsmen to help patrol the border.

The local government has pledged to continue the crackdown.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/n/2014/0805/c90882-8765210.html

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Sun Tzu’s Art of War: Information-Centric, Risk-Averse

A Book from a Divided China

The Art of War (Sunzi Bingfa, more literally translated as Master Sun’s Rules for Soldiers) is Sun Tzu’s handbook of how to guarantee victory in war. This is probably the oldest book on military theory, and one of the most influential globally and historically. It’s certainly the most widely-read. Any military library worth its salt will have at least one copy of this book.

There’s some debate over when Sun Tzu actually wrote the book – and if he ever existed at all. One ancient record places Sun Tzu in the service of the King of Wu, a Chinese state, towards the end of the 6th century BCE, during the Spring and Autumn period*. Sun Tzu describes well-organized armies of a hundred thousand infantry and thousands of chariots, a class of officers distinct from landed aristocracy, organized formations, and sieges of walled cities – a level of organization considered by many scholars to be inconsistent with that era, implying authorship during the later Warring States period. It may have been written during the transition from one form of war to another, or it may have been written by multiple authors in different periods. The earliest known copy is from the 2nd century BCE, during the Han dynasty, but the text was almost certainly written during either the Spring and Autumn period or the Warring States period, when China had no single unified state.

Context and Risk

“Those skilled in war subdue the enemy’s army without battle. They capture the enemy’s cities without assaulting them and overthrow his state without protracted operations. Their aim is to take all under heaven intact by strategic considerations.” (Chapter 3).

The Art of War is not a theoretical exposition of what war is, inherently and eternally; much of its advice is associated with a specific context. Sun Tzu assumes that his reader is, like him, a general directly serving an absolute monarch in a fractured China. As a corollary to that, he believes that the intention of the reader should be to reunite China under their sovereign’s rule.**

As a consequence of his context, Sun Tzu expects that enemy troops, equipment, and territory can be easily incorporated into the reader’s own army or state. He recommends taking enemy resources intact as an important means of increasing your own strength. It’s hard to imagine implementing those ideas outside similar contexts. For instance, it may be possible for separatists in East Ukraine to use weapons or vehicles captured from the Ukrainian military, since they’re using the same Soviet-era equipment, but it’s hard to imagine Hamas effectively repurposing a captured Israeli tank that they don’t have the training and ammunition to use or the spare parts to maintain.

The other consequence is risk aversion. Sun Tzu’s ideal war is one that ends quickly and involves as little contact with the enemy as possible. He explicitly advises his readers not to “press a desperate enemy too hard” (Chapter 7) in efforts to exploit an advantage; he’d rather see a minor but low-risk victory than gamble for a decisive one. This makes sense within the context – if the state’s ultimate objective is to conquer all of China, and many other states are seeking to do so, then playing the long game is essential. Preservation of force takes a priority over short-term success.

The same applies to the state as a whole – Sun Tzu advocates conducting operations deep in enemy territory, both to weaken the enemy by feeding off of their resources and to minimize your own logistical and economic burdens. So great is his emphasis on carrying the action into enemy territory that he has a whole chapter on offensive strategy, but no chapter on the defensive – which makes sense if he thinks of the defensive as a situation to be avoided at all costs. The only times Sun Tzu really mentions defense is when he suggests adopting a defensive position in enemy territory (that the enemy will be forced to attack) and when he advocates withdrawing in the face of a superior enemy force.

Information and Certainty

“Therefore, I say: Know the enemy and know thyself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated.” (Chapter 3).

If Sun Tzu only had one word of advice to give, that word would be “information”. If he had a second one, it would be “deception”. He believes – or at least claims – that a commander with sufficient knowledge of both his own situation and the enemy situation is invincible. This means that being able to collect and interpret information is one of the most important capabilities of a general.

The purpose of the entire first chapter is to ask seven questions of the reader.

1.       “Which ruler is wise and more able?”
2.       “Which commander is more talented?”
3.       “Which army obtains the advantages of nature and the terrain?”
4.       “In which army are regulations and instructions better carried out?”
5.       “Which troops are stronger?”
6.       “Which army has the better-trained officers and men?”
7.       “Which army administers rewards and punishments in a more enlightened and correct way?”

Sun Tzu claims that victory and defeat can be predicted by the answers to these seven questions. Of course, if information is so critical that it can ensure victory, and wars must only be fought when victory is ensured, then you’re going to have to do something to get that information. Sun Tzu recognizes this. He spends an entire chapter talking about the proper use of spies.

He also assumes that the enemy will use similar collection and analysis of intelligence in efforts to bring about their own victory. This leads to his famous statement that “all warfare is based on deception.” Sun Tzu recommends throughout the text that generals be as inscrutable as possible and conceal their intentions even from their subordinates.

Sun Tzu is not, however, the exclusive inventor of intelligence-based warfare. The Arthashastra, written by Kautilya, an Indian near-contemporary of Sun Tzu’s, goes to even greater lengths in emphasizing and describing the collection and use of good intelligence. If you appreciated Sun Tzu’s chapter on the Use of Spies, look up the Arthashastra; it has much more in that vein.

If, on the other hand, you share my concern that Sun Tzu is overly optimistic about the predictability of war, it may be worth reading some of Carl von Clausewitz’ book On War. Clausewitz cautions against having too much faith in information, and asserts the opposite claim to Sun Tzu – that the result of war is always uncertain, and that inherently unpredictable factors can and often will be decisive.

Translations and Misconceptions

The numerous translations of this book were not created equal. Several have interpretative annotations inserted into the text of the book. Some of them even have obvious errors in translation. If you want to read a good one, I recommend doing some research. The one I’ve used – and the source of all my quotes – is Yuan Shibing’s 1987 translation, though there are several other excellent translations out there.

Some of these translations appear to have led to misinterpretations of the text. One of my gripes is the reading Sun Tzu’s use of the word “tao” (“way”) to mean the Taoist concept of the underlying reality of the universe. To me, this reading comes off as an orientalist understanding of Sun Tzu as an infallible, mystical Eastern philosopher-warrior.

The thing is, Sun Tzu doesn’t use the word “tao” that way. In my translation, he explicitly defines “tao” as the thing that makes people obedient to their political leadership even at the risk of losing their own lives. What he’s talking about isn’t the underlying reality of the universe; it’s something along the lines of “social cohesion” or “governance.” He doesn’t ask his reader to compare which ruler is more just and moral; he asks his reader to compare which ruler is more in control of his state.

It’s worth remembering that while the years of Sun Tzu’s life are unknown, he may have been a contemporary of Laozi (years also unknown), the author of the Tao Te Ching and the founder of Taoism – and he may even have lived before him. The chronology is so ambiguous that it’s actually possible that The Art of War predates the Tao Te Ching, and that any superficial similarities between them are the result of common influences, not of one influencing the other.

Recommendations

If you have any interest in war, Chinese history, or war in Chinese history, you should read this book. If you’re interested in anything relating to tactics, strategy, or conflict – you could extend that to economics and game theory, even – you should read this book. If you’re interested in Chinese classics and philosophy, you should read this book. I may dispute the links with Taoism, but if you’re interested in the philosophy, then I strongly recommend that you read The Art of War and form your own opinions. Join the debate.

I can’t say you shouldn’t read this book. Even if you’re only tangentially interested in the subject matter, it’s a short, quick read, and you can find translations of it online for free. The most I can say is that you shouldn’t read it exclusively.

I have to emphasize again that your choice of translation is going to make a difference in your experience of The Art of War. You can read a decent comparison of some of the translations here. That said, The Art of War is short, so you can probably read it in the time it would take you to make an educated choice of translation.

I also want to point out that if English is not your native language, there are still almost certainly translations in whatever your native language is. It’s that widely read.



*The story involves the King of Wu asking Sun Tzu to demonstrate his ability to lead troops with a group of concubines; Sun Tzu gains their obedience by executing two of them.

**Sun Tzu uses the term “all under heaven” (tianxia) – which is in this context a way of saying ‘the world’ where ‘the world’ means ‘China’.



All quotes are from Yuan Shibing’s 1987 translation of Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

This Week in War News: July 26-August 2, 2014

Gaza

Hamas and Israel blame each other for breaking an ambiguously-worded US-brokered three-day ceasefire.
Hamas appears to be copying the tactics that Hezbollah used against Israel in Lebanon in 2006, with similar effect. In both cases, the terrorist group used guided anti-tank missiles in ambushes and hit-and-run attacks to bring the Israeli advance to a halt.

The primary objective of the Israeli military – formerly to stop Hamas rocket fire into Israel – is now to destroy Hamas’ network of cross-border tunnels. Many of these tunnels have entrances in civilian buildings. Airstrikes have been ineffective at accomplishing that objective, but Israeli ground troops have gotten bogged down in urban combat.

Israel claims – and Hamas denies – that Hamas has captured an Israeli soldier.

So far, 1,655 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and 65 Israelis, mostly soldiers, have been killed in the fighting. Both sides accuse each other of attacking UN-run schools that have been used as shelters by civilians.

The conflict has led to widespread international anti-Israeli – and even anti-Semitic – protests, especially in Europe. Some of the protests have been violent.


Ukraine

International investigators have reached the wreckage of MH17. The wreckage of MH17 lies near the road between the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk; fighting in the area has delayed access to the site for the last week. The Ukrainian military appears to have now succeeded in cutting Donetsk off from Luhansk and the Russian border, making it very likely that that they will recapture the city in the near future.

The US, the EU, and other countries continue to escalate economic sanctions or Russian companies and individuals. The Russian economy is currently on the verge of recession. Russia has retaliated by banning the import of Polish fruit, which appears to have sparked an apple-eating spree in Poland.

Large numbers of Russian troops are massing on the Ukrainian border. There is strong evidence that Russian troops have fired across the border; Russia accuses Ukraine of similar cross-border fire. Open intervention by Russia would dramatically escalate the war, and probably lead to even greater international isolation.

The Human Rights Watch has accused Ukraine of using Grad missile launchers on populated areas; Ukraine denies the charge. The extremely imprecise Soviet-era weapon has been used by both sides.

There are now claims – and some evidence – that the separatists are now using child soldiers.

Casualties continue to rise, but exact counts remain difficult to come by.


Syria

A Sunni tribe has risen up against ISIS and forced the terrorist group out of three towns in an oil-rich region of Syria. ISIS recently went beyond their previous mass beheadings and occasional crucifixions to start raising severed heads on poles.

Just like last week, the Syrian Civil War is still the bloodiest ongoing conflict. People appear to be dying at a rate of about 160 per day.


Libya

The scale of the violence in Libya appears to be increasing, with at least 214 people killed and almost a thousand injured since July 12. Islamist militias are gaining ground against militias loyal to a renegade general in the east of the country. In western Libya, the fighting is polarized along broadly Islamist and and-Islamist lines. The Libyan government has so far been unable to maintain security.


Nigeria

In Nigeria, Boko Haram has begun to use suicide bombings. Boko Haram – whose name means “Western Education is Sinful” – gained the international spotlight recently when they kidnapped several hundred schoolgirls. The Nigerian military has so far been unable to act against them effectively.

Many of the recent suicide attacks have involved female bombers, leading to fears that the terrorist group may be using the captured girls as weapons.

As Boko Haram members frequently wear military uniforms while conducting attacks, the Nigerian military has announced a shift to a new uniform to avoid misidentification of the terrorists as their own soldiers.


Iraq

The FAA has asked airlines to fly at higher altitudes over Iraq, suggesting fears that ISIS may attempt to shoot down a civilian plane with a surface-to-air missile. Some airlines are now avoiding Iraqi airspace completely.



Elswhere in the world, fighting is ongoing in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, and Afghanistan.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

This Week in War News: July 20-26, 2014

An Israeli M113 near Gaza. Photo by Reuters.

Gaza

Israeli ground forces moved into Gaza on the 17th; ground fighting continues. An Israeli M113 personnel carrier was hit this Sunday, killing seven Israeli soldiers. American-designed M113s date back to the 1960s and are not protected against improvised explosive devices (IEDs) or RPGs – widely-used Soviet anti-tank weapons. The IDF has access to better-protected personnel carriers, and had weeks to prepare for the ground invasion, suggesting that the decision to use the less-protected vehicles was negligent.

Hamas rocket attacks on Israel continue, and continue to be ineffective. 940 Palestinians (mostly civilians) and 40 Israelis (mostly soldiers) have been killed. Both sides accuse each other of war crimes. A 12-hour ceasefire will end at 5:00 P.M. GMT today.

UPDATE: The ceasefire has been extended an extra four hours. It will end at 9:00 P.M GMT.


Ukraine

Fighting in Ukraine continues after the destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17). All 298 people on board were killed when the plane was shot down on July 17. The bulk of the evidence thus far indicates that it was shot down by Russian-supported separatist militiamen who mistook it for a Ukrainian transport plane.

Both Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of firing across the international border. American and European sanctions against Russia are gradually being escalated. The Ukrainian military is continuing to make progress against the pro-Russian separatists based in Donetsk and Luhansk. Between 1,000 and 1,500 people are believed to have died so far, including at least 325 government soldiers and more than 500 civilians, but not including those killed on MH17.


Syria

The Syrian Civil War remains the bloodiest ongoing conflict, with more than 73,000 people killed last year alone. Moderate militias aligned with the US-supported Free Syrian Army have recently lost ground against the Iran-backed Assad regime and the increasingly brutal fundamentalist Sunni Islamists of ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, now going by the “Islamic State”).

In light of the worsening humanitarian crises in the country, the UN has begun sending aid into the country without the permission of the Assad regime, which has in the past denied aid to rebel-controlled areas. The UN believes that more than 10.8 million Syrians are in need of aid, and that more than 9 million have been displaced, out of a total population of 22 or 23 million.

This sets an important international precedent – humanitarian need now overrides the sovereignty of national governments, meaning that the UN can now effectively ignore governments to distribute aid to any populations that it believes to be in need.


Iraq

The ever-horrifying ISIS (see above) is no longer making progress towards Baghdad. The US, Iran, and Russia are all actively supporting the Iraqi government against the Sunni extremist group. In a power-sharing deal, the Iraqi Parliament has appointed Fouad Massoum – a moderate Sunni – President. Iran and the US have both signaled a preference for more inclusive leadership, but the divisive Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki still holds the bulk of the power in the government.



Elswhere in the world, fighting is ongoing in Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, eastern India, and Afghanistan.