"Cease"fire
So far, the ceasefire declared on Friday, September 5 has held – sort of. Since fire "ceased," Ukrainian government positions in Mariupol and at Donetsk Airport have been repeatedly shelled. Both locations are strategically important – the airport is the Ukrainian government's last foothold in the focal city of the pro-Russian separatist movement, and Mariupol was one of the main targets of the overt Russian invasion.A ceasefire that mostly holds is a bit like a boat that mostly floats. It's not enough.
| A Ukrainian tank on the outskirts of Mariupol after the ceasefire. Photo: Reuters/Vasily Fedosenko |
Eyewitness accounts suggest that the separatists fired first, and the Ukrainian military shot back. Separatist representatives claim the opposite – which is improbable. The most likely explanation is that the separatists simply continued their offensive after they failed to accomplish their objectives in the last hours before the ceasefire came into force (those last hours were characterized by direct tank attacks on Mariupol and fighting around the Donetsk Airport). The violations suggest either complete anarchy in separatist-controlled areas, or that the separatists and their backers were negotiating in bad faith.
The Invasion's Objectives
The objectives of the Russian invasion were probably threefold.- The main objective was almost certainly to break the sieges of Donetsk and Luhansk, the last separatist strongholds, both of which had been encircled by the Ukrainian military. The fall of the last separatist-held cities would probably have led to the end of the fighting and a major symbolic defeat for Russia.
- The encirclement of Ukrainian forces that were overextended between Donetsk and the Russian border was probably a secondary objective. In addition to reducing the strength of the Ukrainian military, a large number of prisoners would have made a useful bargaining chip.
- Finally, and surprisingly, Russian troops attempted to seize Mariupol. The intention was probably to divert Ukrainian reserves and threaten to open a land connection with Crimea. Seizure of Mariupol would have also aided the claims of the separatists to represent the whole region, as they currently only control two cities of any size.
The first objective succeeded. Donetsk Airport is the last Ukrainian government foothold in either city. The Ukrainian military was driven out of Luhansk completely. The Russian motorized infantry battalion probably took part in that fighting. It is shown in the video on the road between Luhansk and the Russian border, supported by a tank company and at least two 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzers.
The Russian incursion also succeeded in surrounding a number of Ukrainian troops south of Donetsk, mainly from the less-capable "volunteer battalions."
Despite repeated armored attacks supported by heavy artillery fire, Ukrainian troops still hold Mariupol. Historically speaking, frontal attacks have never been the most effective tactic for dealing with a determined defender in an urban area – as the Israelis learned in Gaza, the Ukrainians learned in Donetsk and Luhansk, and as the Russians should have learned in Chechnya. In all these cases, the attacker resorted to massed artillery fire as a way of dealing with their opponents, leading to large numbers of civilian casualties.
The recent bombardment of Mariupol suggests that the Russian forces in that area may be adopting the same methods.
The "Volunteers"
The Russian government – possibly forced into the open by growing casualties – now acknowledges that there are Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but characterizes them as volunteers. If the soldiers are indeed volunteers, then they're volunteering in whole units, and taking their equipment with them, with the apparent permission of Russian border authorities. One unit has even been decorated by Putin himself – presumably either for deserting and dying in a foreign country, or perhaps for getting lost, as Putin originally described the Russian soldiers captured by the Ukrainian military.The units in Ukraine include elements of the 98th and 76th Airborne Divisions, and probably part of the 20th Guards Tank Brigade (the only unit known to operate the T-72B3, which has been seen in Ukraine), assisted by artillery that shuffles back and forth across the border as the situation demands.
The official death toll is now above 3,000. At least five have died since the ceasefire took hold. More than a million people have been displaced.
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