Saturday, September 13, 2014

The Obama Doctrine and ISIS

No Change in Strategy

Two days ago, on the thirteenth anniversary of September 11, President Obama gave a speech that should have taken no one by surprise. The plan he described is the implementation of the same foreign policy the U.S. has had since 2009 – the use of airstrikes and allies to deal with designated threats while minimizing the involvement of American ground troops. It’s the same strategy used in Libya, Somalia, and Yemen. It’s the same strategy that led to the 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden.

As explained in this speech, the plan is straightforward: strike the horrific terrorist group ISIS from the air, both in Iraq and in Syria; promote an inclusive government for Iraq; bring in an organized coalition of allies, with a focus on Arab states; and support the moderate Syrian rebels of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against Assad.

There are flaws with this plan – especially regarding the expansion of airstrikes into Syria. The U.S. would need to communicate with the FSA to ensure that targets are correctly identified – otherwise there would be a risk of striking the FSA by accident. But communicating with the FSA about targets would make it possible for the FSA to deliberately misidentify Syrian government forces as ISIS. A U.S. airstrike against Assad could provoke a response that the U.S. would deliberately respond too, drawing the U.S. into the war and giving the FSA the air support they’ve wanted since 2011.

The Mahdi Army, a Shia militia that fought against U.S. troops
during the Iraq War, fires on ISIS. Photo: Reuters/Ahmed Jadallah
Of course, a more limited response would be politically difficult given the hawkish nature of American political discourse. The U.S. is the only country that would be realistically capable of invading almost anywhere on the planet, and the use of that capability can be excruciatingly tempting.

In this case, putting ground troops on the front lines is not a reasonable option. ISIS would love to be seen as a group actively fighting against the U.S. Being able to directly attack American troops would probably assist ISIS’ recruitment efforts and increase, not decrease, their legitimacy in the region.

Neither Islamic nor a State

Obama described ISIS – which prefers to call itself the “Islamic State” – as “neither Islamic, nor a state.” Groups and even countries calling themselves things they aren’t isn’t a new practice. Voltaire once described the Holy Roman Empire as “neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire.” These days, I can’t imagine anyone believing that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is democratic, a republic, belongs to its people, or is all of Korea simply because it claims to be.

With the American public leaning towards war, the difference between ISIS and Islam is important to point out. No group of people since al-Qaeda has been more widely denounced by Muslim scholars and communities around the world. ISIS is so far from the Islamic mainstream that conspiracy theories have emerged suggesting that it’s a proxy created by the U.S. to attack Muslims.

Regard the claim to statehood: it's no more a state than the average drug cartel



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